— GBP/USD remained near the 1.2900 mark as the market anticipated US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. These are scheduled for Wednesday at 1900 GMT, aimed at implementing a “reciprocal” tariff package. On this day, market volume decreased, reflecting uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff strategies. Reports suggest the United States Trade Representative may consider alternative tariffs to clarify the situation.

Us Manufacturing Data Falls

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March fell to 49.0, lower than the 50.3 reported previously and below the expected 49.5. This decrease indicates businesses are preparing for potential tariff impacts, with the New Orders Index reaching a two-year low. The UK economic calendar is light, while important US Nonfarm Payrolls figures are due later this week. This data may influence the market as it assesses the economic effects of Trump’s tariffs. GBP/USD has been consolidating below the 1.3000 level, with traders cautious amid a strong dollar. Short resistance on the Cable is limited, while bullish trendlines from January’s low at 1.2100 remain intact above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average of 1.2725. The Pound Sterling, known as the oldest currency still in circulation, represents 12% of global transactions. Its value is impacted by Bank of England monetary policy, economic indicators, and trade balance figures. The Bank of England targets a 2% inflation rate through interest rate adjustments, which can affect GBP strength. Economic data like GDP and employment figures further influence the Pound’s value, with a positive trade balance supporting its strength.

Market Focus Shifts To Labour And Tariffs

Overall, GBP/USD remains stable as the market awaits tariff outcomes and labour data, indicating a pivotal moment for the currency pair. As we edge deeper into the week, attention still hovers around the anticipated tariff announcement from Washington due this evening. The timing and scope of these measures, expected to reflect a so-called “reciprocal” framework, have already shifted risk sentiment enough to stall directional trades in GBP/USD. Volumes have dried up, which suggests hesitation and recalibration rather than strong conviction. Traders seem wary of getting caught on the wrong side of an uncertain White House policy shift. The weaker than forecast Manufacturing PMI print out of the US earlier this week added pressure to already jittery positioning. The fall to 49.0, from 50.3 previously, not only confirmed a contraction in manufacturing but also hinted at broader slowdown fears taking hold among producers. The steep dip in the New Orders Index—to its lowest level in two years—might be a clearer sign that businesses on the ground are now aligning operations with reduced demand expectations, not just reacting to headline risk. From a macro view, the softer US data isn’t the only driver this week—labour figures due on Friday carry considerable weight. Nonfarm Payrolls could provide markets with hard evidence on whether slower business activity has crossed into hiring decisions. We don’t have those numbers yet, but some investors are already pricing in a potential downside surprise after softer ADP private jobs estimates and cooling wage metrics from recent prints. The Federal Reserve, with its dual mandate in full view, will be watching carefully too. Sterling, for its part, has been remarkably resilient. Consolidation just below the 1.3000 handle doesn’t scream panic, especially with the pair holding well above its longer-term support at the 200-day EMA. The trendline that began forming in January still holds structure, which suggests longer-term accounts are not unwinding bullish positions—not yet, anyway. We’re also seeing fewer immediate technical barriers to upside moves in the pair, now that resistance around 1.2900 is getting regularly tested. Any breach backed by fundamentals—be it soft US labour data or easing trade tensions—could accelerate interest towards previous highs. But positioning around that psychological 1.3000 mark remains tight, with many unwilling to commit until post-payrolls. With the UK offering little in terms of market-moving data this week, most of the action is being driven externally. Monetary policy positioning from the central bank is already well priced in, and with inflation pressures off their peak, there’s room for patience on Threadneedle Street. That gives traders space to focus elsewhere, especially on how US fiscal and economic conditions play out through spring. Trade flows and rate differentials continue to drive broader direction in Sterling pairs, as they often do. That support from a better UK trade balance—evident in the last couple of months—still creates a structural tailwind. It may not be loud, but it adds to the underlying valuation strength. At the same time, monetary policy tools available to policymakers offer enough flexibility to respond if conditions change sharply. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now. اکنون تجارت را شروع کنید – برای ایجاد حساب VT Markets زنده خود اینجا را کلیک کنید